ElectRA Model

 

ElectRA TM Model is a research and analytical tool adapted specifically for an Armenian political system which allows obtaining data accurate enough to predict any voting results in 2-3 days before the voting with the marginal error of 2-3%.

ElectRA TM Model is based on the combination of latent and direct factors, which enables to measure several objective and subjective factors.

The factors are measured on the basis of coefficients of the individual variables which in turn construct more complex coefficients. The final coefficient, obtained after the survey data analysis, is the rating of the political entity based on different levels and analytical principles.

The coefficients are divided into two groups. The first group is for the calculation of the final coefficient and the second one is the reflection of additional background variables.

Here are the main groups of coefficients:

  • Voting preference of the respondents,
  • Level of awareness,
  • Participation rate,
  • Loyalty rate,
  • Latent-administrative impact,
  • Fear factor.

Our specialists developed the ElectRA model in 2007-14, and it was tested through a number of surveys. This methodology was tested before the several regional and national elections and stand out with high level of accuracy. Taking under consideration the fact that this model is very well elaborated ElectRa model trademark was registered in 2013 and the copyright owned by “Hay Heghinak” NGO.